Google wins on Gemini and Anthropic compute
The bull case for Google relies on its dual exposure to the AI boom, capturing market share via its Gemini model while securing massive backlog revenue as a compute provider to Anthropic.
The argument
The speakers noted Anthropic's $200 billion commitment represents roughly 40% of Google's future backlog. While Google competes directly with Gemini, hosting Anthropic allows it to hedge its bets and profit from multiple leading AI models.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Google Cloud revenue growth accelerating in upcoming quarters
- ✓Gemini maintaining or growing its enterprise market share relative to OpenAI
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Enabling a direct competitor (Anthropic) could eventually erode Gemini's long-term moat
- ▸High concentration of cloud backlog in a few private AI startups
Hear it yourself
"Most of our portfolio companies have the same provisions in it. This has gotten more and more locked down over my investing career. Right? It used to be the lawyers wouldn't put the stuff in in default, and then maybe four or five years ago, every set of charter documents say no transfer without the board permission, just like Anthropic and OPNI. Okay? So nothing new. Two, Anthropic last year warned MENLO, one of its best investors and others, enough with the SPVs, they said publicly. Enough with the damn SPVs. This isn't new. They said stop the SPVs. If you want to invest, you have to invest directly."
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