EchoStar offers indirect exposure to SpaceX
The guest argued that EchoStar serves as a public proxy for private SpaceX equity due to a spectrum sale paid in SpaceX stock.
The argument
Because EchoStar received SpaceX stock instead of cash for its spectrum assets, the guest suggested it trades close to net asset value without the typical closed-end fund premium, offering a unique entry point to SpaceX's growth.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓SpaceX valuation increases boosting EchoStar's balance sheet
- ✓Clarity on the exact valuation and lock-up terms of the SpaceX shares held by EchoStar
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Illiquidity of the underlying private SpaceX shares
- ▸EchoStar's core business performance dragging down the stock
Hear it yourself
"And but in the middle of that, we penciled in the idea that the market would test a new Fed. And, therefore, we would have a sort of start to the year that would be strong. 7,300 was an aspirational number at the time because the S and P was in the 6 thousands. But then we think that there'd be a pause, and then the setup would still be positive because we think there were some structural tailwinds. And so we thought we'd end the year 2026 at 7,700. So I the year is tracking the way we expected, although we're a bit above 7,300 right now. But if someone asked me today well, first of all, can the S and P make its way to 7,800 first before it dried on you? I think anything's possible."
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