MGM Resorts offers deep value and Japan catalyst
The bull case presented for MGM Resorts highlights aggressive share buybacks, strong management, and a massive, underappreciated growth catalyst in Japan.
The argument
The guest argued that MGM has retired roughly 45% of its shares outstanding since 2021. Furthermore, MGM is slated to open the only legalized casino in Japan by 2030 (owning 43% of the project), which is projected to generate $6 billion in revenue - nearly matching its entire current Las Vegas footprint.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓BetMGM profitability continuing to inflect positively
- ✓Progress updates and construction milestones for the Japan casino project
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Selling real estate to private equity creates rising rent escalators that pressure margins
- ▸Consumer pushback against rising costs and commercialization of the Las Vegas experience
- ▸Delays or regulatory hurdles in the Japan casino development ahead of 2030
Hear it yourself
"2030, they're gonna be opening the only casino legalized casino in Japan. Only one. They they think it's going to be a they're gonna own 43% of it. I I they are projecting, I think, something like $6,000,000,000 of revenue."
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