SpaceX bid expected ahead of index inclusion
The guest argued that SpaceX is poised for an upward bias in the near term as passive indexers and retail options traders force positive flows ahead of index inclusion.
The argument
Brent Kochuba suggested that index front-running typically peaks around the inclusion dates (late June for the Russell index, early July for the Nasdaq), after which staggered share lockups and potential retail exhaustion could trigger a correction. He noted the initial float is tight, making it highly susceptible to an upward squeeze.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Russell index inclusion finalized around June 20-21
- ✓Nasdaq index inclusion in early July
- ✓Options trading launch on June 16 showing heavy call volume
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Staggered share lockups releasing more float over time
- ▸Historical tendency for hot IPOs to correct significantly post-launch
- ▸Extremely high valuation of approximately 100 times sales
Hear it yourself
"Nasdaq's gonna add as we're talking a minute. So that, you know, makes it challenging to navigate there. Then you have the very rapidly shifting AI Dynamic Dynamics, right? I think Claude and obviously open. I are going through the their IPOs. And I just think for the AI systems that matters in terms of pricing out. Obviously, SpaceX is kind of an an XAI is a big component of that. So there's so much changing around here, you know, not just fundamentally in in terms of valuations, but also just in terms of, like you said, the flows piece."
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