Time horizon arbitrage beats short-term forecasting
Focusing on a business's long-term survival and earnings power over a three-to-five-year horizon provides a competitive advantage over market participants obsessed with short-term quarterly earnings.
The argument
The guests explained that they analyze 15 to 20 years of historical data to understand unit economics and buy high-quality, long-duration assets when they go through temporary soft patches or regulatory scrutiny.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
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▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Value traps where temporary soft patches turn into permanent structural decline
- ▸Client pressure during periods of short-term underperformance
Hear it yourself
"When When we select those equities, we're value investor. It's a global value team. But value investing, as you know, means different things to different people on the one end of the spectrum, sort of, let's call it the Benjamin Graham types, scouting or screening the world for the statistically cheapest securities one can find. The The other end of the spectrum, let's call it the Warren Buffett end, if you start the search process with looking for good businesses. I would say we gravitate more towards that Warren Buffett end of the spectrum, but that gets us sort of to the next broad or loose term, which is what is a good business."