Timberland provides uncorrelated returns and inflation hedge
The guest argued that timberland is an ideal diversification asset that performs comparably to equities but remains completely uncorrelated to both stocks and gold.
The argument
The speaker highlighted Weyerhaeuser as a public vehicle trading at a discount to its replacement cost with a >3% yield, noting that biological tree growth of 3-5% annually provides highly predictable returns that can be safely leveraged.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Weyerhaeuser trading closer to its estimated replacement cost
- ✓Stable or increasing timber harvest yields
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Illiquidity of physical land holdings
- ▸Changes in mortgage and borrowing rates used to leverage timber purchases
Hear it yourself
"I think that there are a bunch of folks who will show, oh, wait a second. We've navigated those well in their mind. Right? They'll they'll claim that we we actually got through those, and and so, therefore, they're not actually contributing to any sort of issue. You have specifically identified 2029, the year 2029, as the year that the end of America as we know it. And you recently published a book under the name. I I spent the weekend reading that book, and you lay out a pretty strong mathematical argument as to why 2029 is that great reset. Can you just walk us through the math and and why 2029 is that year? Yeah."
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