US domestic perps won't spark crypto boom
The launch of US-regulated perpetual swaps is unlikely to drive significant incremental demand or major price movements for underlying crypto assets.
The argument
The guest argued that US regulators will heavily restrict leverage limits compared to offshore platforms, meaning most speculative volume will remain offshore. Furthermore, the structural advantages of perps—such as operating without credit or clawback mechanisms—are less relevant in a highly regulated domestic environment.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓US domestic perp trading volumes remain low post-launch
- ✓Bitcoin price shows no significant upward movement directly following US perp product launches
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Institutions could adopt perps more widely than anticipated to displace traditional futures
- ▸A future retail bull market could make simple leverage interfaces viral again
Hear it yourself
"clear this market is very flows driven right now and very sentiment driven. And sentiment, I I think, you know, Saylor was probably testing the market as you mentioned, and I think he got the answer he was not looking for, which is that absolutely not. You are not allowed to sell. Like, you are a big part of the story of why Bitcoin gets to keep going up. And so I I think Saylor likely has internalized this lesson of never press that button ever again for as long as Really? You think that he is not he's his hands are are tied and he can't sell? You you think this response has told him, okay."
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