Semiconductors shift toward longer demand cycles
The speakers argued that the semiconductor sector, particularly memory manufacturers, is undergoing a structural shift that could extend the typical cyclical upturn.
The argument
Unlike the fiber-optic buildout of 2000 where capacity sat idle, current memory and compute shipments are being deployed immediately to meet active demand, supported by strong earnings growth that matches price appreciation.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Micron sustaining high average selling prices for HBM (high-bandwidth memory)
- ✓Semiconductor industry earnings continuing to compound over the next 12 months
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Cyclical peak in memory demand
- ▸Skepticism from market participants leading to sudden multiple contraction
Hear it yourself
"Where we go? Where where is this? Series h, they're raising $65,000,000,000 At $965,000,000,000 post money. The round is being led by Altimeter Capital, Dragunier, Green Oaks, and Sequoia. And listen to his participating, basically everybody, capital group, co two d one capital partners, GIC iconic. Yeah. And, and Taylor too. And XN, AMP AMP, P BBC, Bally, Gifford, Blackstone, Brookfield, D E Shaw, DST global fidelity management and research company, General Catalyst, Insight Partners, Jane Street, Light Sheet Partners. I'm, like, halfway done. I'll stop reading, but Right. Holy shit."
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