Mining jurisdiction risk favors safe-haven countries
The guest argued that rising commodity prices prompt developing-nation governments to increase taxes and royalties, making safe jurisdictions like New Zealand highly attractive for mining equities.
The argument
Based on his career in Australia, the DRC, and South America, the guest observed that governments in developing nations often change the rules during commodity bull markets to take a larger share of profits. He argued that operating in stable jurisdictions protects investor margins and makes companies prime M&A targets.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Resource nationalism events or tax hikes in developing mining jurisdictions
- ✓Increased M&A premiums paid for assets located in tier-one jurisdictions
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Unexpected political shifts in historically safe jurisdictions
- ▸Permitting delays despite favorable government frameworks
Hear it yourself
"And especially when we consider how much debt the US government already has and how much more would need to accumulate to keep this war going. What are your thoughts there? Yeah. I mean, firstly, I completely agree with you. I I I think this Iran war has been won six times already in the first, few months that it's been going on, and it's still ongoing. And, interesting enough, and this is just my opinions, I I don't think US has any incentive to to stop the war. I mean, US is fairly oil sufficient whether it coming from South America or from Canada where I am. And and so the oil shocks don't impact America as much as it impacts a place like China."
06:40