Gold shifts to a range-bound trading regime
The guest argued that gold has entered a corrective phase characterized by a loss of long-term upside momentum, favoring short-to-intermediate swing trading over a structural bull market.
The argument
Although gold shows signs of short-term downside exhaustion, the loss of long-term momentum has impacted monthly indicators, suggesting a transition to a trading range.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Gold price consolidating within defined technical support and resistance boundaries
- ✓Monthly momentum indicators failing to reclaim previous bullish thresholds
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸A sudden resurgence in macro inflation fears could break gold out of its range to the upside
- ▸Stronger US dollar or rising real yields could break range support to the downside
Hear it yourself
"It's been in a corrective phase that now shows signs of downside exhaustion. But what we saw last quarter and what remains an issue is a loss of long term upside momentum that's meaningful enough to hit our monthly indicators."
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