Clarity Act passage probability rises to 75%
The legislative path for the crypto-focused Clarity Act has significantly cleared following a bipartisan Senate Banking Committee vote, raising its estimated passage probability to 75% this year.
The argument
The guest argued that unexpected Democratic support in the committee has rerated expectations, though a tight nine-week legislative window before the August recess and potential disputes over ethics provisions remain key hurdles.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Reconciliation of Senate Banking and Agriculture committee bills within the next week
- ✓Scheduling of a Senate floor debate before the August recess
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Tight legislative calendar with only nine weeks of active Congress time before August recess
- ▸Disputes over executive and presidential ethics provisions that could stall the bill on the floor
- ▸Potential presidential veto if the ethics language is deemed too targeted
Hear it yourself
"Alex, how excited, how thrilled are you right now? How how are you feeling? I I'm very excited. I've been a little bit on the pessimistic side in this bill over the months, you know, just the amount of complexity that is required, the competing equities, you know, banks and the Dems and the Republicans and the White House and all and the law enforcement and the developers and there's just so many and so many issues. It's such a big bill. And I've been generally, I would say, on the more pessimistic side, you know, in in the sort of crypto policy world. I'm not pessimistic now."
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