OpenAI rushes IPO to beat Anthropic
The thesis argues that OpenAI's confidential S-1 filing is a defensive move to secure a premium valuation before its decelerating growth and Anthropic's superior financial metrics become glaringly obvious to the public.
The argument
The speakers compared leaked Q1 revenues, noting Anthropic's $5B Q1 revenue (growing ~10x YoY and profitable) is rapidly catching up to OpenAI's $5.4B Q1 revenue (growing ~2-3x YoY and unprofitable), meaning OpenAI must go public first to avoid being valued as a slower-growing 'number two.'
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Official S-1 filing confirming OpenAI's unprofitability and decelerating growth rates
- ✓Anthropic's revenue officially overtaking OpenAI's in subsequent quarters
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Leaked revenue numbers may be inaccurate or incomplete
- ▸OpenAI could reaccelerate growth through new model releases before the IPO
Hear it yourself
"Right? So first, just but it's not just a great revenue business growing at 80%. It's a widely profitable operating margin business. Right? And then the second thing to your point about what you make you know, you you kind of were whining about the stock on the day and, you know, honestly, don't look at the stock on the day. The big picture is over the last I mean, I got that six, nine months, the stock's up 20%. I mean, it's basically, it had a one off jump, you know, from '23 on when everyone just totally internalized in the space of a year the amount of spend that would take place in AI CapEx."
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