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Carbon markets shifting from voluntary to compliance

The carbon market is at a major inflection point, shifting rapidly from voluntary transactions to domestic and international compliance frameworks.

The argument

The guest argued that the future of the industry lies in compliance mechanisms like Article 6, CORSIA, and domestic markets in Japan and Australia. He noted that South Pole is radically shifting its portfolio to align with this transition.

The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
  • Airlines making test purchases for compliance in 2026 and 2027
  • Standardization of data protocols and registry systems
▸ Risks discussed
  • Lack of clear regulatory leadership in the current political environment
  • Proliferation of fragmented registry systems
Hear it yourself
"And the second one is shifting our portfolio quite radically from a market that was very geared towards the voluntary market to a market that is heavily skewed in direction of article six, COSIA, domestic compliance markets in Japan, in in Australia, and the like, where where we see the the big future of the industry."
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Carbon markets shifting from voluntary to compliance · Zortix