Semis backed by actual earnings growth
The speakers argued that the current semiconductor rally is fundamentally different from the 1999 dot-com bubble because it is supported by robust earnings growth.
The argument
The hosts noted that the semiconductor sector trades at a reasonable 27 times forward earnings despite massive price appreciation. They pointed to NVIDIA's recent breakout and massive market cap addition as reflections of real bottom-line expansion rather than pure multiple expansion.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Semiconductor sector maintaining a forward P/E around or below 27x in upcoming quarters
- ✓NVIDIA sustaining its recent breakout above previous sideways ranges
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Extreme short-term price volatility
- ▸Potential digestion periods where stocks trade sideways for months
Hear it yourself
"He's also the author of the brand new book, Risk and Reward, which we're going to dig into today. Congratulations, Ben. No one will read it. No. I'm just kidding. This is a huge accomplishment for you because not just because how prolific you are in terms of publishing books, but the blog. Three days a week ish? The blog helps me write the book. I so that I totally understand as a blogger turned, author, but still, it's, it's a lot of work. It's very impressive. Congratulations. Thank you. Alright. And another returning guest, Kai Wu. Kai is the founder and chief What is this? Founder"
11:15
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