US stock market is a standout bubble
The US stock market is in a prolonged, unsustainable topping process that momentum indicators suggest is broken and ready to roll over.
The argument
The guest argued that despite marginal new price highs, long-term momentum indicators are broken. He highlighted a 'broadening top' pattern (three consecutive highs interspersed with two lower lows) since 2024, indicating a highly unstable market similar to the laborious topping processes of 2000 and 2007.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓S&P 500 dropping back below the highs seen in late 2024 or early 2025
- ✓S&P 500 breaking weekly momentum structures around the lower 6300s
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Laborious topping processes can tease investors with marginal new highs before finally breaking
- ▸Short-term bounces can be stronger than expected
Hear it yourself
"averages and create an oscillator, It says you're topped. You're topping. Don't trust the new price size. This has happened before, not the same pattern, but this prolonged topping process. Back in 2000, it took a full year of laborious teasing but steady price action to finally break that bubble, the the.com bubble, they call it. In 2007, you had a similar situation where you made a high early in"
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