South Korean memory chip bubble risk
The bear case argued that the massive run-up in South Korean memory chip stocks represents a speculative bubble vulnerable to a looming Chinese supply response.
The argument
The guest argued that forward net profit estimates of $200 billion to $250 billion by 2028 for commodity memory producers are unrealistic. Chinese competitors are rapidly expanding capacity and are expected to introduce significant new supply starting in 2027, which historically turns the commodity cycle.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Chinese memory competitors successfully ramp up production yields
- ✓Enterprise DRAM spot prices begin to decline on TrendForce data
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) demand could remain structurally undersupplied
- ▸Chinese supply response could face longer-than-expected technical delays
Hear it yourself
"Korea, I do think it is a bubble because the estimates for Ford profits for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, we're now talking 200,000,000,000 US dollars in net profit estimates for 2028. That will make them the most profitable companies in the world. These are companies that produce commodities."
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