Underinvestment drives multi-year commodity bull cycle
The guest argued that decades of underinvestment in physical resources like copper and oil have set the stage for a multi-year commodity bull market that will reward patient capital.
The argument
The transition from an age of abundance to scarcity requires a shift to low time-preference investing. Long-term development of physical assets will eventually yield outsized returns as supply constraints bite and countries compete for resources.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Lack of major tier-one copper discoveries continuing over the next several years
- ✓Rising capital expenditure deployment into physical resource extraction versus technology
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Long lead times of up to 10 years for mine permitting and development
- ▸Rising risk of government intervention or nationalization of key resource assets, even in Western jurisdictions
Hear it yourself
"Because a lot of people have grown accustomed to taking their cues from the stock market. If the market doesn't crash, then all the smart people aren't worried about this, so I shouldn't be worried about it. And I think, you know, what's what's happened over the years, you know, we've all become conditioned to living in this, this just in time world where everything is immediately available. We have abundant liquidity. We have the ability to have things delivered to our doorstep the next day. Today's episode of Palisades Gold"
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