US stock market faces major topping process
The guest argued that the US stock market is in a major, laborious topping process that will likely resolve in a multi-year bear market.
The argument
Oliver pointed to momentum structures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which have already broken their multi-year upward channels relative to their 36-month averages. He expects the current rally to be a transient 'final spike' before a structural rollover occurs.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓S&P 500 closing below the 6,600 to 6,785 range
- ✓Nasdaq 100 breaking its multi-year momentum structure by dropping below its flat floor level
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Short-term rallies can spike to new highs before the final rollover
- ▸Geopolitical headlines can cause temporary price distortions
Hear it yourself
"And our technicals tell us it's going to do it. And I think that's a place for investors to look, and it will be in part a consequence of the breakage of the stock market because what it'll the stock market breakage will cause movement of assets out of a broken category into that which is perceived to be low risk, higher reward commodity category. Welcome to thoughtful money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. The S and P five hundred clocked its best month in six years in April. Is that momentum likely to continue? And"
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