Perpetual futures markets expand to US retail
The CFTC is opening the door to regulated perpetual futures in the US, which could significantly expand trading volumes but introduces high leverage risks to retail investors.
The argument
The discussion highlighted that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are preparing to launch perpetual futures. While onshoring these derivatives brings regulatory security, critics warn that retail investors may not understand the risks of high leverage.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Official CFTC approval and launch of Kalshi's perpetual futures contracts
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Extreme leverage leading to rapid retail investor losses
- ▸Lack of regulatory clarity from the CFTC on prediction markets
Hear it yourself
"And I think it's unlikely that retail investors to whom these perpetual futures seem to be, marketed are gonna understand the risks. Last year, the global trading volume of perpetual futures on crypto exchanges was estimated at more than $80,000,000,000,000, but these trades haven't really been authorized in US markets."
00:00 / 00:23