Skepticism clouds US domestic crypto perps
The guest expressed skepticism regarding the immediate impact of onshore US crypto perpetual futures, citing a lack of retail demand and regulatory limitations.
The argument
Despite recent CFTC approvals for Kalshi and Coinbase, the guest argued that domestic retail traders are not currently seeking leveraged crypto trading. Additionally, the CFTC has explicitly restricted perpetuals from being applied to equities or agricultural products, limiting the market's potential scope.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Low initial trading volumes on Kalshi's domestic Bitcoin perpetual contracts
- ✓Continued CFTC refusal to permit perpetual contracts on traditional equity instruments
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Lack of retail participation in domestic leveraged trading
- ▸Regulatory pushback from established agricultural and equity market stakeholders
Hear it yourself
"And if the market itself is voluntarily capitulating, I think you see what the response is from market participants. They just say, look, I'm getting I'm getting the hell out of the way. I don't wanna I don't wanna be part of this. So now look, it's possible that he does one big fat sale. I don't know that the liquidity is like, it's gonna be ugly to try to raise a couple billion dollars in this environment. But maybe he does one big fat sale and then says, I'm coolin' it. No more sales for a long time. It that's the least bad way to do it if you're gonna do that."
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