Semiconductor bull market has room to run
The speaker argued that the current semiconductor cycle is a secular megatrend that will likely be longer and stronger than the late-1990s cycle.
The argument
The speaker noted that while semiconductors currently screen as a potential blow-off top, a similar signal in 1995 lasted for 63 months and saw the group 11x. With the current run only 30 months in and up roughly 4x, the speaker believes the fundamental data and GPU demand visibility suggest the cycle is far from over.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Continued high capital expenditure and GPU demand visibility
- ✓Avoidance of a Fed rate hike cycle
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Potential for sharp 20% to 38% drawdowns within the structural bull market
- ▸A shift in Fed policy toward rate hikes could break the cycle's back
Hear it yourself
"You call whatever you want or, you know, like, you're seeing both the left and the right start to say, why are we building data centers? And, and I mean, I'm I'm somewhat sympathetic to that. I mean, every my son actually asked me that this weekend. He's 15, and he was like, dad, do you think we should be building data centers? So, I mean, this is becoming an issue. It's becoming something people are really talking about. And, and so I think the messaging the and the guys who run the labs are horrible, horrible spokesman for this for this world. They're not the marketers for Not at all. And"
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