Severe AI compute deficit persists through 2027
The structural shortage of AI compute, land, and power means that companies securing long-term capacity now will hold a massive competitive advantage.
The argument
Friar argued that even with massive investments, OpenAI will face compute shortages in 2026 and 2027, with choke points shifting across energy, land, chips, memory, and regulatory approvals.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Successful ribbon-cutting and power delivery at the Saline, Michigan data center
- ✓Securing additional gigawatt-scale power allocations for 2028 and beyond
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Rising power and memory costs
- ▸Local community pushback on massive data center energy consumption
- ▸Regulatory delays in grid connection
Hear it yourself
"It doesn't matter the vertical. People are really moving on AI right now. Our new head of revenue, Denise Dresser, in seats since December, she is a force of nature. And so I think the enterprise, broadly speaking, is really firing on all cylinders, but we don't want to leave the consumer behind. Remember, our mission at OpenAI is AGI for the benefit of humanity, not for the benefit of humanity who can pay or for the benefit of humanity who live in an enterprise, but very broad based. It's why we offer so much free because we want people to get a taste."
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