Walmart relative performance signals economic slowdown
The relative outperformance of Walmart stock against global luxury retailers serves as an early indicator of economic stress and a looming slowdown in real GDP growth.
The argument
The guest argued that pressure on lower-to-middle-income consumers shows up first in Walmart's relative performance. Historically, when this ratio spikes, real GDP growth slows and unemployment tends to rise, suggesting the economy is headed for a slower growth trajectory rather than a full recession.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓A downward adjustment in the 10-year Treasury yield to catch up with the indicator's move
- ✓A sequential slowdown in real GDP growth in upcoming quarters
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸The indicator has historically decoupled from credit spreads in certain cycles
- ▸Strong aggregate consumer and corporate balance sheets may prevent a full recession despite the signal
Hear it yourself
"Discharge shows is the ratio of Walmart stock relative price of Walmart stock to the S and P global luxury retailer index. And you could see when you look back historically, the the big surge there was back in the o eight, o nine crisis, the financial crisis. And Walmart's this relative ratio was an early indication of that coming."
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