Bond vigilantes target long-end US yields
The bearish case for long-duration US Treasuries argues that the bond market is defying the classic easing cycle, setting up long-end yields to break above the 5% resistance level.
The argument
The hosts noted that despite aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, ten-year yields have moved higher. They argued that if bond vigilantes reawaken, long-end yields could make another run at 5% or higher, especially given that implied volatility on long-bond ETFs is sitting at yearly lows.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓TLT trading down to the low $80s or below
- ✓The 30-year US government yield breaking and sustaining above the 5% level
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸An economic contraction could trigger a flight to safety, driving yields lower and hurting the short duration position
Hear it yourself
"Implied volatility on the TLT long bond ETF is sitting down at its lows of the year. This makes this kind of convex expression much cheaper to put on than almost at any point earlier in the cycle."
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