Value traps unchained via cyclical down-cycles
The guest argued that investing in apparent 'value traps' during cyclical down-cycles offers asymmetric returns when capacity rationalization corrects the supply-demand balance.
The argument
He explained that public markets run on a delay and punish companies that are currently losing money. By buying asset-heavy, out-of-favor businesses at a fraction of their replacement cost (sometimes 20 cents on the dollar), investors can capture massive upside when supply shrinks below normalized demand.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Industry-wide capacity rationalization and asset liquidations
- ✓Stabilization of normalized EBITDA through the cycle
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸The 'weighing machine' running on a significant time delay
- ▸Difficulty in predicting the exact duration of a down-cycle
- ▸Potential for permanent capital impairment if the business cannot survive the trough
Hear it yourself
"When we do look at them, there's a large margin of error that we assume into those numbers, and so therefore, we're buying at what we think is an extremely discounted valuation based on what we think is a normalized earnings of the business, and frequently normalized earnings of the business is predicated on what's the replacement value…"
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