Severe structural deficit looms for copper
The bull case for copper is driven by an unprecedented supply-demand mismatch as global electrification, AI data centers, and military demand outpace the multi-year timelines required to build new mines.
The argument
The guest argued that humanity has mined 700 million metric tons of copper over the last 10,000 years, and maintaining a 3% GDP growth rate - even without accounting for incremental AI and green energy demands - requires mining that same amount in just the next 18 years. He noted that even if copper prices spiked to $50,000 a ton, supply cannot quickly respond due to extreme permitting, engineering, and supply chain bottlenecks.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Copper prices breaking out past historical nominal highs
- ✓Lead times for critical mining equipment from manufacturers like Siemens or ABB exceeding five years
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Extremely long development timelines (often decades) for new mines
- ▸Severe supply chain bottlenecks for critical mining equipment like grinding mills
- ▸Geopolitical risks in key mining jurisdictions like the Congo and Mongolia
Hear it yourself
"Now we're using we're using about 24,000,000 tons a year, absent electrification, with no AI, no incremental AI, no solar, no wind, no electric cars. If you want to maintain 3% GDP growth, we have to mine 700,000,000 tons of copper in the next eighteen years."
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