Seasonal lows present optimal grain entry points
The guest argued that seasonal patterns in the agricultural cycle create predictable entry points for investors looking to build exposure.
The argument
Historically, the cyclical low for corn occurs in August when crop quality is determined, and in early October when the harvest supply is fully realized on the ground.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Corn prices hitting cyclical lows in August or October in line with historical averages
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Unseasonal weather anomalies can disrupt historical seasonal pricing patterns
Hear it yourself
"And in general, at the end of that cycle, you have about six months supply of wheat in general, okay, Historically you have about three or four month supply of corn and soybeans, all right, so if there's a disruption and that's that big pile is reduced by you know, ten thirty percent."
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