SpaceX valuation priced for perfection above $200
The bear case argued for SpaceX is that its post-IPO valuation above $200 per share is priced for perfection, leaving little margin of safety and significant downside risk.
The argument
The guest argued that at a valuation over $200, the stock sits on the extreme right tail of the probability curve, assuming everything goes perfectly. He suggests a more reasonable valuation representing the fat part of the bell curve is closer to $100 per share, making the current price unappealing for risk-reward focused investors.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓The stock price falling toward the $100 level over the next 6-8 months
- ✓Substantial insider selling volume once the six-month IPO lockup expires
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Post-IPO lockup expiration in six months could flood the market with insider supply
- ▸A broader market pullback or an Nvidia earnings miss could disproportionately drag down high-profile names like SpaceX
Hear it yourself
"So I, said, on the the day of the IPO, like, there was, there were gray markets, that were projecting that the thing was gonna come out, over $200 a share. I think I I got up that morning at five in the morning, and I think one of one of the gray markets was suggesting $2.11 per share was gonna be where it treated to."
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