Hyperscaler spend keeps Nvidia dominant
The guest argued that Nvidia remains well-positioned for continued rapid growth due to sustained hyperscaler CapEx and the strength of its CUDA platform.
The argument
The guest noted that hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure is unlikely to wane soon, and CUDA makes it difficult to perform complex modeling on alternative platforms. He suggested keeping the broader Magnificent Seven at market weight but highlighted Nvidia as a high-conviction standout.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Hyperscalers reporting sustained or increased CapEx guidance in upcoming quarters
- ✓Continued market dominance of CUDA-based software in developer surveys
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Hyperscaler CapEx could eventually slow down
- ▸High valuation and volatile post-earnings stock reactions
Hear it yourself
"I think we studied it's the third worst month out of the 12 in the last hundred years, but it's nowhere near statistically significant. So I I don't I'm not a huge believer in those. That that's a little astrological. Yes. Well, I kinda said it tongue in cheek because I know that, you know, at Trivariat, where you're focused on is analysis over antidotes, combining quant and judgment. And I think understanding, you know, what is different between sort of cyclical and structural in the markets. And one of the things that you said recently, I don't know if it was from that Great Barron's article or it might have been some other piece of research that you guys put out."
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