Peaceful Taiwan resolution preserves TSMC access
A potential grand bargain between the US and China involving a peaceful reunification of Taiwan was framed as a scenario that would preserve, rather than destroy, US access to critical semiconductor manufacturing.
The argument
The guest argued that a negotiated settlement is far more likely to maintain US access to TSMC's chips than an active war. He estimates a twenty-five percent chance of a grand geopolitical bargain where the US cedes on Taiwan in exchange for China respecting US dominance in the Western Hemisphere and investing domestically in the US.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Official joint statements from the Trump-Xi summit indicating cooperation on Taiwan
- ✓De-escalation of military drills around the Taiwan Strait
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Trump lacking the political capital to pass such a deal in Washington
- ▸Violent opposition to the deal from European and Asian allies
Hear it yourself
"Market isn't pricing that in right now. Market's pretty sophisticated, so we're kind of just watching like everybody else. I would be very curious in those other couple of ideas that you haven't articulated yet, why we haven't seen a larger spike. Yeah. So if you're talking about front month oil, the IEA exists now, it didn't exist in the 1970s that, you know, IEA exists to insulate developed economies from this exact scenario by setting and policing crude oil inventory standards. Most countries have exceeded their goals, Australia being one notable outlier, that was caught, you know, with its pants down here, when the war broke out."
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