SpaceX holds unmatched ten-year competitive moat
SpaceX is framed as the ultimate long-term buy-and-hold investment among the mega-IPOs due to its insurmountable technological lead and lack of viable competitors.
The argument
When comparing OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX for a 10-year holding period, the speakers overwhelmingly favor SpaceX. They argue that while the IPO pricing might seem expensive, the company's competitive moat is so vast that no competitor is likely to catch them in a decade.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Successful execution of the 5-week unlock experiment without crashing the stock
- ✓SpaceX IPO pricing and first-day trading performance
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Extremely high valuation expectations
- ▸Potential for an inflated IPO price due to retail hype and limited float (3%)
Hear it yourself
"And so I asked them, is Friday, like, really meaningful the way that sort of petered out? Like, is that is that something that is gonna be a blip, like DeepSeek when we look back in three months, or will this have been, like, a meaningful moment? And Nick's comment was, of course, we can't know for sure. What did he suspect? Did he Well, he said, I don't ignore reversals of six standard deviation moves. Okay. Okay. Fair. Take it up with him. No. No. No. Fair. Alright. So I wanted to talk to you about this story, last week. So this is now stale. It's May 27, which is, like, two trading months ago. Right? Eight years ago. Yeah. Basically."
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