Energy refiners offer strong fundamental growth
The bull case argued for energy refiners is that they are growing earnings faster than the Nasdaq due to expanding crack spreads, representing a fundamentally supported cyclical trade.
The argument
The speakers argued that unlike other parts of the energy sector, refiners are growing at 40% with earnings recently turning positive. They noted that names like Valero and Phillips 66 are performing exceptionally well, yet are largely ignored by the broader market.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Continued expansion of crack spreads in upcoming quarters
- ✓Refiners maintaining positive earnings growth above broader market averages
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Crack spreads could contract, hurting margins
- ▸Refiners have historically been treated as a momentum trade which can reverse
Hear it yourself
"And I will say, if you look at oil, particularly refiners, not all oils, and drillers have done well, but to be honest, the fundamentals are sketchy on some of these right now. Refiners are growing at 40%. Refiners are growing faster than Nasdaq."
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