Oil prices peak but establish higher floor
The guest argued that while immediate crude oil prices have likely peaked, a structural geopolitical risk premium will keep prices significantly higher than pre-crisis levels.
The argument
Lacalle explained that global supply is adapting through US exports, Saudi/Russian management, and Venezuelan output, which will cap further spikes. However, the forward curve indicates that WTI will establish a new, structurally higher floor (around $70/bbl) even after the immediate conflict resolves.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓WTI forward curve stabilizing around $70/bbl for late 2026/2027 contracts
- ✓Refinery margins adapting to alternative crude slates
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸A complete collapse of OPEC+ production quotas
- ▸A rapid resolution of the Strait of Hormuz blockade leading to an immediate supply flood
Hear it yourself
"In the case of The United States, The United States is now the largest oil and gas producer in the world. It is exporting record levels of petroleum products. It's at net exporting of 2,800,000 barrels a day, so net exports, very significant. Same with jet fuel, same with other with other elements. The problem is in the European Union and is certainly also in emerging economies. Emerging economies, some of them are going to see some benefits from the rise in commodity prices. Brazil, Argentina, etcetera, are going to see that benefit because, obviously, they're big. So you and oil producers and exporters, all those things may be positive."
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