Emerging Markets transform into a semiconductor growth play
The bull case argued for Emerging Markets (EM) is that the asset class has structurally shifted from a legacy commodities proxy to a high-growth semiconductor and technology play.
The argument
The hosts pointed out that consensus 2026 EPS growth estimates for EM are an outlier at 35%, driven by the fact that over 30% of the index is now tech. Key semiconductor giants like TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix dominate the portfolio, redefining EM as a tech-hardware trade.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓EM earnings growth meeting or exceeding the 35% consensus estimates for 2026
- ✓Continued outperformance of international tech hardware relative to US software
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Geopolitical risks surrounding Taiwan and TSMC
- ▸Cyclical downturns in the global semiconductor industry
Hear it yourself
"We're looking at consensus estimates for 2026 earnings per share growth. And everybody is basically, you know, sort of neck and neck. There's one huge outlier, and it's EM. And I thought to myself, what the hell is going on with EM? Consensus estimate earnings are up 35% year over year."
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