Double ordering risks in AI chip sector
The speakers argued that the massive AI CapEx boom is showing signs of a late-stage bubble, including potential double-ordering of chips reminiscent of the 1999-2000 tech peak.
The argument
While current massive spending prevents a near-term recession, any disappointment in AI model performance or capital availability could rapidly reverse expectations. The guest noted that technical analysts are seeing momentum stumble in key leaders like NVIDIA, suggesting a potential top.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓NVIDIA's technical momentum breaks key support levels
- ✓Major tech firms report a reduction or plateau in projected AI CapEx
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Spending could continue at current massive magnitudes for another year or two
- ▸New IPOs could successfully re-energize market enthusiasm
Hear it yourself
"But the math keeps on marching relentlessly, and I do feel still like it's within the next year or two, but it could be longer. I mean, it it certainly could be. They're they're pretty good can kickers, and I'll say, you know, I thought it was coming when Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2020. I was thinking, okay. This is it. Here we go. This is it. Okay. And and I hadn't the book wasn't out at that point, but but I was wrong. You know, they they patched it all up and off we went. And so now, you know, we we continue to keep sowing the seeds of this monetary excess, the most recent of which is, you know, what I call kind of the the AI bubble."
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