Anthropic projected to surpass Alphabet revenue
A cited thesis suggests Anthropic's exponential enterprise AI adoption curve will allow it to surpass Alphabet's revenue by mid-2028.
The argument
The argument relies on Anthropic's rapid ARR scaling compared to Alphabet's mature, slower-growing ad and cloud businesses. The guest agreed this is possible because legacy institutions continue to underestimate the velocity of AI adoption.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Anthropic ARR hitting $100 billion by the end of 2026
- ✓Alphabet's year-over-year growth falling below 15%
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Deceleration of enterprise AI adoption physics
- ▸Alphabet successfully integrating defensive AI measures to protect its cloud/ad revenue
Hear it yourself
"And the the more educated they are, the more experienced they have, the more books they've read about history, the more they're like, well, this is a bubble. This is ridiculous. I just think people have to understand that there's two things that have created this. One is this supersonic tsunami. Again, I think every week, we bring it up. I remember saying it on stage at your event, like, this is a supersonic tsunami. It's disrupting companies on the SaaS side. But at the same point, it happens so fast out of nowhere that we didn't make the investment."
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