Shorting treasury debt as yields rise
The guest reiterated a bearish stance on government bonds, predicting that yields will continue to climb higher.
The argument
The speaker noted that the TLT has broken down, aligning with their macro thesis that inflation and debt debasement will push bond yields higher.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓TLT breaking key support levels to the downside
- ✓Consistently higher CPI or inflation prints forcing yields up
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Central bank intervention or pivot to rate cuts pushing yields down
- ▸A deflationary shock causing a flight to safety in government bonds
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