Wait for the second wave of AI winners
The guest argued that investors should wait for valuation compression and clearer competitive dynamics before investing heavily in primary AI hardware providers.
The argument
Drawing parallels to Cisco in the 1990s, the guest suggested that the 'second time around' in transformative tech cycles offers a safer entry point. Currently, major hyperscalers are designing in-house chips, which could alter the long-term demand duration and refresh cycles for incumbent chipmakers.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Valuation multiples compressing to levels providing a stronger margin of safety
- ✓Public listings of major AI developers like OpenAI or Anthropic clarifying industry capital flows
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Hyperscalers successfully insourcing chip design
- ▸Uncertainty around the duration and frequency of GPU refresh cycles
Hear it yourself
"And right now, you look at someone like Nvidia or AMD, and then you hear, you know, Arm, you know, trying to create their own, you know, CPU chips. You have, you know, Meta obviously, you know, trying to build stuff in house."
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