Oilfield services outperform overvalued Gulf Coast refiners
The guest argued for a long position in oilfield services, specifically Schlumberger, paired with a short position in Gulf Coast refiners due to historically wide valuation discrepancies and diverging fundamentals.
The argument
The guest stated that Schlumberger trades at a 60% discount to the S&P 500 despite a 10% free cash flow yield and exposure to accelerating international oil production in Brazil and Guyana. Conversely, Gulf Coast refiners are trading at historically expensive multiples despite declining crack spreads and a premature market assumption regarding Venezuelan crude supply.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Schlumberger digital revenue growth accelerating beyond its current 6% share
- ✓Gulf Coast refiners reporting margin compression in upcoming quarterly earnings
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Geopolitical volatility could disrupt global oil supply dynamics
- ▸Refining margins (crack spreads) could unexpectedly rebound
Hear it yourself
"But the flip side of that is I think the Gulf Coast refiners are ridiculously expensive relative to the fundamentals, and they've been a favorite of the zeitgeist because clearly all this more all more Venezuelan crude is gonna come to market and be as a benefit of these guys."
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