PayPal is an overlooked private equity target
The guest argued that PayPal is a highly attractive value play and potential acquisition target trading at a deep discount despite strong cash generation.
The argument
He pointed out that PayPal trades at nine times earnings, is actively buying back stock, and owns Venmo, yet its stock price remains depressed because the current market ignores fundamental value. This discrepancy highlights how objective value is ignored in a momentum-driven market.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓An acquisition bid or private equity interest is announced
- ✓Significant upward re-rating driven by sustained share buybacks
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸The market may continue to ignore fundamental value indefinitely
- ▸Lack of private equity or corporate buyers to realize the value
Hear it yourself
"You almost you know, if if you've been a contrarian in a productive manner, which I have, throughout the course of my career, I I did research on the short side for a decade and did great research that led to indictments and fraud being delisted and, you know, billions of dollars in US listed, China based fraud being delisted, and, you know, indictments and and companies getting shut down and, you know, basically everything you could want from identifying fraud and from being a a skeptic on the short side. I've worked on those projects, and I've done them with tremendous results, but for the fact that my trading is atrocious."
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