Agentic commerce path to $300B for Coinbase
The guest presented a thesis that Coinbase could reach a $300 billion valuation by 2031, driven by its dominance in AI-agent transactions and stablecoin infrastructure.
The argument
The guest argued that AI agents will increasingly conduct transactions using stablecoins, and Coinbase's x402 protocol and Base chain currently command a 90% market share of this nascent 'agentic commerce' volume. This could generate over $4 billion in annual agentic revenue for Coinbase by 2031, compounding its early lead over competitors like Stripe and Google.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Coinbase's quarterly reports showing growth in Base transaction fees from non-human agents
- ✓Widespread developer adoption of the x402 protocol over Stripe's MPP
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Intense competition from Stripe's Machine Payments Protocol (MPP) and Google's AP2
- ▸Slower-than-expected adoption of AI agents for financial transactions
Hear it yourself
"And, you know, I think that it has to be sort of a bilateral agreement to between Circle and Coinbase to be able to come come to an agreement with hyper liquid on this yield sharing. You you can't just be unilateral on Circle side. So, clearly, they both see the benefits in having USCC be the native asset, the native stablecoin for Hyperliquids, you know, perpetual exchange, but also, you know, the ACA markets, prediction markets that are that were just so recently deployed on Hyper Liquid. So maybe I'll I'll take a pause there."
08:10
AFFILIATE LINK · ZORTIX MAY EARN A COMMISSION · NEVER A RECOMMENDATION TO TRADE