Taiwanese political shifts threaten US chip reshoring
A potential return of the KMT party to power in Taiwan could slow down US semiconductor reshoring efforts and reduce bilateral military cooperation.
The argument
The guest argued that the KMT is more dovish toward Beijing and skeptical of US intentions, viewing Taiwan as a potential pawn. Consequently, a KMT administration would likely be less enthusiastic about helping the US reshore advanced chip manufacturing compared to the ruling DPP.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓KMT victory in the Taiwanese presidential election
- ✓Public statements from TSMC or Taiwanese officials indicating delays or reduced commitment to US fab projects
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Slowing momentum for US-based semiconductor manufacturing facilities
- ▸Increased geopolitical friction if Taiwan's leadership pursues closer ties with Beijing
Hear it yourself
"The chips are a co benefit, but China cared about Taiwan long before they made chips, and they would care about them if they didn't make chips. Taiwan is the unfinished business of tie of China's civil war. In 1949, as the Kuomintang, Chiang Kai shek's government was losing control of Northern China, they began to evacuate their forces alongside all the treasures of the Imperial palace to Taipei, And they set up a government there, essentially took over the island by force, and became, over the course of the Korean War, essentially a US ally. In 1955, Eisenhower went to Taipei. They became a critical node in The US alliance architecture."
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