Low inventories and geopolitical friction support oil
The guest argued that historically low crude inventories at Cushing and prolonged logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will push oil prices higher.
The argument
Cushing storage has fallen to 25 million barrels, near the bottom of its operating range, while clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines and security threats could take at least three months, keeping global supply tight.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Cushing inventories falling below 20 million barrels
- ✓Brent crude sustaining levels above $90 per barrel
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸De-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
- ▸A significant increase in US domestic production offsetting global shortages
Hear it yourself
"For the Fed meeting itself, we're gonna get a summary of economic projections. The last one we got was in March. A lot has changed in the last few months. Growth is coming in stronger, but at the same time, inflation is higher. And what we're seeing among, economists and the FOMC is more of a consensus that neutral is higher. And so that cut for this year is gonna be taken out of the projections, likely a cut or two for next year as well, and we're going to be entering this world of higher for longer. The last thing I'll say is that we we do think that that chair wars is going to be focused more on these trimmed inflation mean measures."
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