Oil prices dictate Fed rate hike risk
The guest argued that the trajectory of oil prices into the FOMC meeting will heavily influence the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.
The argument
If oil prices remain low or trend downward, it allows policymakers to discount broader inflation pressures. Conversely, a rebound toward $100 per barrel would increase rate hike probabilities, threatening high-valuation tech stocks.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Oil prices breaking above $100 per barrel ahead of the FOMC meeting
- ✓Fed commentary shifting toward a hawkish stance or pricing in a December rate hike
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Unpredictable geopolitical developments affecting oil supply
- ▸US strategic petroleum reserve dynamics distorting market prices
Hear it yourself
"So obviously, we we love Brent's conspiracy corner, and, obviously, you've had some conspiracies that the idea was Iran had to be settled to get the SpaceX IVO out. So we we had to make sure we had to make sure SpaceX didn't come out into a bad environment, so we we found a way to, at least a proposed deal right to it here. I mean, I have a deal yesterday at 02:00, and the market just went super bid. And then today, you know, they're like, they got some confirmation headlines coming in, and the market would bid again. And then, you know, and then SpaceX so I don't know. I don't know. Brent's conspiracy corner."
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