US industrial policy creates protected tech winners
Government equity investments in national security sectors like quantum computing and semiconductors create highly bullish setups for selected corporate partners.
The argument
The hosts discussed the Trump administration's $2 billion investment in quantum computing (utilizing CHIPS Act funds), noting that government-backed companies benefit from regulatory protection and guaranteed demand. While raising concerns about market distortion and political corruption, they noted these stocks typically rally following government funding announcements.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Official contract awards or equity allocations announced by the White House
- ✓Outperformance of government-backed tech stocks relative to non-subsidized peers
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Erosion of private competitiveness and free-market dynamics
- ▸Potential vectors for political corruption and lobbying influence
- ▸Risk of government overreach in corporate governance
Hear it yourself
"You could just see it in the charts. This is kind of where I've concluded. I think that it could just be short term hard, but debasement ultimately just benefits anyone. Like, you as you said, it it benefits all of crypto because we are scarce assets. Maybe Bitcoin specifically, maybe there's idiosyncratic, ways that the different the crypto industry responds to this. But, man, I I see a world where it's, like, short term difficult because of interest rates. But then to a 10% inflation, you know how much money we're gonna print when when we do that? Well, there could be it could be the case that Warsh comes in, and he's like, oh, inflation."
10:15
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