Bitcoin battles short-term holder cost basis
Closing and holding above the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $79k would historically signal the end of the crypto bear cycle.
The argument
The hosts discussed cycle analysis suggesting that multiple weekly closes above the $79k-$85k range would break the back of the bear market. However, they cautioned that anemic spot volumes and macro headwinds could still trigger a temporary dump back to the $60k range first.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Bitcoin securing multiple consecutive weekly closes above $85,000
- ✓A drop in Bitcoin price back to the $60,000 range to test fair market value
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Anemic spot trading volumes
- ▸Macroeconomic pressures like high inflation and high interest rates dampening risk-on liquidity
Hear it yourself
"Biggest recover recovery ever. High oil prices, increasing inflation, high yields. Consumer sentiment is at all time lows. Something we skipped over is, that because of the inflation, numbers that came in in April, real wage growth has not kept up with inflation over the last, like, two or three years. And so Do we have a chart of that? Yeah. Mhmm. Yeah. Is this it? Oh my god. It's the one. Yes. Okay. Inflation is now eating up all wage gains for the first time in about three years. This is painful for Americans in a true financial squeeze."
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