SpaceX IPO upside already captured by insiders
The guest argued that the SpaceX IPO is fully priced at 95 times revenue, leaving retail investors with limited expected returns.
The argument
Historically, large-cap IPOs perform flat relative to the market over their first three years because the explosive growth phase occurs pre-IPO, benefiting only accredited insiders.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓SpaceX stock trading flat or down relative to the S&P 500 over a multi-year post-IPO period
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸A potential merger with Tesla could alter the valuation dynamics
- ▸Retail demand continues to defy historical IPO performance trends
Hear it yourself
"The US Navy has said it'll take three months to make sure the Strait is clear of mines and Wow. Probably with the way The US has attacked the Iranian mine layers, Iran doesn't know where the mines are. Right. And, you know, the intel sources in Washington are saying that Iran has now, let the genie out of the bottle or The US has let the genie out of the bottle and and shown that Iran has control of the Strait, the hundreds of miles along the Strait. And they've got drones that, you know, we could buy at Target or Walmart that they put some some explosives on, can fly into the bridge of a ship."
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