SpaceX valuation invites an inevitable drawdown
The bearish case argues that SpaceX's astronomical valuation of 145 times revenue makes it a poor entry point today, as historical precedents suggest even ultimate winners experience massive drawdowns of 50% or more.
The argument
The guest argued that while long-term backers see multi-trillion-dollar potential, probabilistic market history (such as Amazon's 90% drawdown) indicates patient investors will likely get an opportunity to buy SpaceX at a fraction of its current valuation.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓A price correction of 50% or more from peak valuation
- ✓SpaceX financial disclosures showing revenue growth failing to keep pace with the multiple
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Strong execution and growth could allow the company to grow into its valuation without a price drop
- ▸Continued private or secondary market enthusiasm could keep prices elevated
Hear it yourself
"We are the 100 thinking tag team that is at least gonna venture to have a little bit of a conversation here with, with everybody else on different versions of vacation. So Chris Meyer, ladies and gentlemen, resident 100, cofounder, Woodlock House Family Capital. New book new book is officially out yet or not just yet? Not yet, but any day now. I hear books have been printed and are in transit. So should be any day. Bated breath. Yeah. With bated breath. And a timely book, I should say. Very, useful for this market, let's say. Alright. Well, let's give me that. Why is the new book timely? By the time this is out, it might even be available."
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