Memory cycle peak prompts Micron exit
The guest argued that the dramatic run in DRAM and memory stocks is temporarily over, prompting a complete exit from Micron Technology despite long-term AI tailwinds.
The argument
The speaker noted that Micron had already achieved an eight-bagger run and outperformed every Magnificent Seven stock since 2018. While the long-term demand for memory in AI inference remains valid, the stock's rapid appreciation suggests the current cycle has run its course for now.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓DRAM spot prices beginning to decline
- ✓Micron reporting a deceleration in sequential revenue growth
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Inference demand could require even higher memory capacity than anticipated
- ▸Micron could surprise with stronger-than-expected quarterly guidance
Hear it yourself
"level of equilibrium, and we should brace for this to be, like a two plus year, exercise similar to last time that inflation flared up. Well, first of all, Scott Besson is talking his book, obviously. This is a major bet that they've made. The midterms are coming up. So they want this to go down. But when you, start a conflict and you've got a choke hold place like the Strait Of Hormuz, you don't get to choose when it ends. That is a negotiation. And, anyone who's been in any kind of negotiation, there's two sides to a negotiation."
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