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NXEDNNCore thesis · 5/5Save idea

Uranium structural deficit persists regardless of SMRs

The bull case for uranium is driven by a simple, persistent supply-demand deficit between current mine production and existing reactor fleets that will last until at least 2030.

The argument

The guest argued that the market is already in a severe deficit now that post-Fukushima Japanese stockpiles have been fully digested. Because nuclear utilities have highly inelastic demand and can tolerate uranium prices up to $500/lb, prices must rise to at least $150/lb to incentivize the next tier of global mine production.

The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
  • Uranium spot prices rising toward the $150/lb incentive level
  • Permitting milestones or construction starts for developers like NexGen and Denison
▸ Risks discussed
  • A major nuclear accident or military strike on an operating reactor
  • The use of a tactical nuclear weapon resensitizing the public against nuclear energy
Hear it yourself
"And so I do think that we're gonna see a big improvement in nuclear reactor design in the next five or six years. I don't think you need any of that incidentally to invest in uranium today because the story between now and 2030 is really a story of not producing enough out of mines to meet the current reactor fleet."
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NXE: Uranium structural deficit persists regardless of SMRs · Zortix